After Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee, her support from people behind bars nearly doubled the support President Biden had received, according to Marshall Project surveys conducted before and after Biden dropped out of the race.
Thirty-five percent of respondents who took both surveys would choose Harris, compared with 20% who said they’d pick Biden. Support for Trump remained strong at 44%.
We could track the shift from Biden to Harris because we sent out a second survey when Biden dropped out of the race, following a survey initially conducted when he was the nominee. Roughly 11,500 people in 542 facilities in 41 states and the District of Columbia responded to both surveys.
To understand the shift toward Harris, we reviewed hundreds of open-ended answers about her qualifications for president. We followed up with a handful of respondents, too. One key theme emerged: A large share of survey-takers across the political spectrum are fed up with the political status quo and are desperate for change.
The change Harris offered was not so clearly articulated. But many respondents said Trump and Biden have had their chance in power, and they were ready to see someone new. People often pointed to her identities, rather than her political stances. Listing her qualifications, they cited her age, race or gender.
Some were excited to see a Black woman in the race. “She’s a Black woman. I’m a Black man, she gets my vote by default,” wrote one respondent who is detained in North Central Regional Jail in Greenwood, West Virginia.
Others said it was time to welcome a woman into the Oval Office. “I think it’s time we let a strong independent woman run the show, because every male so far hasn’t done anything in the last 30 years,” one White respondent in Arkansas wrote.
Some believed her identity might help her tackle some of the most intractable issues in the country: “I think the U.S. needs to have an African-American female in office so the U.S. can maybe clear the air of racism,” wrote one Black woman incarcerated in Alabama.
Age also played a clear role. Biden is over 80 years old, and Trump is only a few years younger. Some people who switched their vote to Harris after she entered the race were pleased to see someone younger.
“I’m 54 and am nowhere as connected to the world as a 25-year-old. How can an 80-year-old not be out of touch with the younger world?” a White man in Arkansas wrote. “Technology advances daily. In my opinion, an 80-year-old cannot keep up.”
“When it was Trump against Biden, I didn’t feel as though Biden was healthy or mentally capable of running a second term, so I would have voted for Trump,” wrote one Black respondent who is incarcerated in Kingman Correctional Facility in Arizona. “But now that we have a new smart, vibrant person that’s smarter than Trump and more likely to do a better job than Trump, I would have to vote for Harris!”
Harris’ support varied by race. Among Black respondents, support for her doubled what it previously was for Biden — increasing from 26% to 51%. Harris’ entry into the presidential race cut into Trump’s support among Black respondents, dropping from 40% in a Biden-Trump contest to 28%.
Harris also gained support from White respondents, but less so, increasing from 15% to 24%. Her groundswell among White survey-takers came mostly from third-party candidate supporters and people who previously hadn’t planned on voting — not from Trump’s White base, which remained virtually unchanged.
Among respondents who switched to Harris, one phrase came up again and again: She’s not Trump.
It was not always clear why these respondents, who described their support for Harris largely as an anti-Trump vote, shifted their choice after Harris entered the race. But her support among some respondents seemed born not of enthusiasm, but out of fear of the alternative.
“It’s not that I believe Kamala Harris is the best choice for President, and if there was another candidate that wasn’t Donald Trump, I would probably have my girlfriend and Mom vote for them,” wrote a White man who previously said he’d pick a third-party candidate. “Anybody but Trump. Since the contest has come down to Trump and Kamala, then Kamala it is!”
“She is not Trump,” wrote one White respondent who is incarcerated in Alabama. “She is an educated woman who holds the position of Vice President, she is obviously qualified, but even if she was not, I would still vote for her before I would vote for a chauvinist, hate-group want-to-be leader, bigoted, and foul Trump.”
Survey respondents were often vague about what concrete policy shifts Harris represented. Because many people lacked information about her, they were able to project hopes for change, no matter how amorphous. As one person wrote: “To be honest, I don’t know much about her but I’m gonna start looking into her cause I really think the U.S. needs to have change.”
But there was one area in which many respondents hoped Harris could make a difference: improving the economy. While many inside and outside prisons and jails think Trump would boost the economy, several of the incarcerated respondents who switched to Harris seemed more open to her pitch that she would advocate for working Americans. Some remarked on Harris’ middle-class upbringing. They hoped her background would make her better able to address the struggles of everyday Americans.
“I believe that Kamala Harris is a candidate that understands the middle-and-low-class citizens and is working to give everyone a chance to have a better life and a way out of poverty,” wrote one respondent who is incarcerated in California and who would have previously voted for Trump. “The economy is the biggest reason to vote for her.”
Perhaps unsurprisingly, concerns about the criminal justice system were central to how people behind bars were thinking about the election. Respondents highlighted a litany of issues: long sentences, wrongful convictions, prison and jail conditions, and distrust of the police. But many respondents expressed skepticism that either candidate would actually address these problems.
While candidates have spoken about crime and immigration, they have said relatively little about problems facing people behind bars — even though about half of people in the U.S. have had an incarcerated family member.
Even people who switched their support to Harris seemed reluctant or resigned. One man wrote that he was not convinced criminal justice reform is high on her list of priorities, but he said she was the “least dangerous option for this country.”
Other times, responses boarded on despair. “Doesn’t matter who becomes president, this country is in serious trouble,” one Latino man in Arizona wrote. “The rich control the government anyway so the people’s vote doesn’t matter anyway.”
Learn about how The Marshall Project is covering the 2024 election’s criminal justice and immigration issues across the U.S. and in our local news teams’ cities.
