BETHLEHEM, Pa. — Since the sinking of the Titanic more than 100 years ago, one Pennsylvania county has voted for the ultimate winner of a US presidential election all but three times.
The political pulse of Northampton County has predicted 25 of the last 28 elections — dating back to Woodrow Wilson’s victory in 1912, when he bested Theodore Roosevelt and William Howard Taft.
Northampton’s only misses were Richard Nixon in 1968 and George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004.
Located on the Keystone State’s eastern edge and approximately equidistant from New York City and Philadelphia, Northampton County and neighboring Lehigh County make up the Greater Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania’s third-largest metropolitan area. “The Valley” is home to three cities on the post-industrial upswing — Allentown, Bethlehem and Easton — and dotted with rural and suburban municipalities.
Speaking to The Post just two months ahead of the showdown between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, voters from The Valley spilled their thoughts on the race they’re county will once again help decide this November.
Denise Marshall, 72, Nazareth
A lifetime Northampton County resident who spent 35 years teaching middle school, Denise has lived in her home in Nazareth Borough (pop. 6,000) for the last 13 years. She now works part-time for Weight Watchers and enjoys spending time with her grandson.
Denise says she’s been a Republican since first registering to vote and describes herself as a strong conservative, her views based on the need to enact what she calls “slow, logical change” and support for a strong national defense.
“Republicans are pro making sure others know we’re a strong nation, that we have power, and we’re not afraid to use that power when needed,” she told The Post, noting that foreign leaders were “skeptical” of challenging America during Trump’s term.
Denise believes Trump’s handling of economic issues and ability to follow through on promises are his greatest strengths, while speaking carelessly and sounding “cringey” at times is a potential drawback.
“I think [Trump] needs to be a little more careful, to concentrate more on what he and his administration can do to help Americans, rather than what the opposition will do to hurt us,” Denise said.
While she does not find Harris to be trustworthy, Denise is impressed with her campaign ads and believes that the veep being nearly two decades younger than Trump could be an ace in the hole.
“Age definitely works in her favor in terms of the next four years,” she told The Post. “I think she’s appealing to younger voters, women voters for sure.”
George Ziegler, 60, Bethlehem
Also an educator, George has spent 25 years in the public school system, including time as a high school English teacher. The father of two adult sons, he now works as a literacy coach.
As a self-described strong liberal who has voted consistently for Democrats, George says he’s most focused on gun safety and public school funding — issues he says Harris will better address than Trump.
“Kamala Harris has consistently supported increased investment in public education, advocating for higher teacher pay and better resources for schools,” George told The Post.
“On gun safety, she has pushed for stronger gun control measures, including universal background checks and a ban on assault weapons, which I believe are critical steps to reducing gun violence in schools and communities,” he added.
George believes the Trump administration’s education policies unjustly favored private schools, and that he did not act meaningfully on the gun issue.
“[Trump’s] administration… showed little urgency in addressing gun violence, focusing more on arming teachers than on implementing common-sense gun safety laws that could prevent tragedies,” he said.
As a Northampton County voter, George says he feels a “strong responsibility” because of the “significant weight” his ballot will carry nationally.
“There’s a sense of added importance knowing that my vote could help determine the outcome in a state that often swings the entire election,” George concluded.
Eric Zwick, 72, Lower Macungie Township
Eric is a real estate investor who has lived in Pennsylvania for 28 years since moving from New Jersey. He’s consistently voted for Democrats up through the Bill Clinton era, but told The Post that since the turn of the century, he’s become dissatisfied with the Democrats. Unhappy with what he calls “the party of the welfare state,” Eric has since become a Republican.
“Kamala’s position is [to] bring in more people, or get the people on welfare to support the Democratic Party,” Eric said of Harris’ record on illegal immigration.
Eric says the record inflation seen during the Biden-Harris years has forced him to increase the cost of living for his tenants.
“I feel guilty when I raise their rents [by] $50 a month,” he told The Post. “I’m looking for a more stable economic policy, and I think we had that with Trump.”
Though he describes himself as conservative, Eric believes some Republicans “are just way over the top” on issues like abortion.
“The states that have Republicans become ‘no abortion at all costs,’” Eric said of the post-Roe GOP. “No abortions for rape, no abortions for incest, and I totally disagree with that.”
While he will be voting in blue-leaning Lehigh County, Eric still feels the pressure to get his vote right.
“I feel that, now more than ever, every single vote in this area really counts,” he said.
Sheri Curtin, 59, Bethlehem
A clinical research consultant in the pharmaceutical industry, Sheri says her moderate views on the issues “wouldn’t make either party happy.”
Sheri told The Post she’s concerned about ongoing problems with drugs and crime, as well as women’s reproductive rights.
“You don’t give these drug addicts clean works and say ‘have at it,’ you get them into rehab programs,” Sheri said of Democrats’ “safe haven” approach to drug issues. “And if you have to do that through prison systems, then do it.”
Sheri also criticized Harris’ time as a liberal California prosecutor, telling The Post that “Kamala’s prosecution record doesn’t give me a lot of warm and fuzzy that she’s gonna be hard on these criminals that are destroying our society.”
But like the other voters, Sheri strongly rebuked the Republicans’ stance on abortion, calling Trump’s decision to appoint Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade “a gigantic bonehead move.”
“Coming from a medical background… a woman’s right to protect her life or spare an unjust and miserable existence for a child that will probably not survive is not fair,” Sheri said.
“You are forcing a condition on people, and it may not be one that they can comfortably live with,” she added.
Asked about the influence she’ll have as a Northampton County voter, Sheri answered simply: “If you don’t vote, don’t bitch!”
M.T., 23, Bethlehem
An electrical engineer by trade, M.T. spoke with The Post anonymously because he is a government employee with a security clearance. For him, this election will come down to the economy, immigration and abortion. His Catholic faith and desire to have several children are a significant factor in shaping how he views these issues, and his ultimate decision at the ballot box this November.
“The cost of living is just too high for recent college graduates to get started and build and save for things like starting a family and having children,” M.T. told The Post, noting that many grads like himself are burdened with student debt. “We as a country need children and it should be something that [is] promoted more.”
M.T. objects to Harris’ strong pro-choice stance, calling her YouTube ads on the subject “morally disturbing.”
“I think that you can’t kill innocent unborn children simply because you don’t know what their potential is,” he said. “They could be the next Albert Einstein or Tom Brady and have the potential to impact so many other people’s lives in a positive manner.”
However, M.T. is no fan of Trump because of his role in the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021. Though he voted for Trump in 2020, he has vowed not to support him this year.
“If Trump were to lose this election, I don’t feel confident that the radical MAGA Republicans would accept Harris’ win, and they could escalate political polarization further to potentially dangerous levels,” he added.
Third party voters’ numbers have shrunk this cycle since Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his campaign last month, but M.T. remains among them.
“If Nikki Haley was on the ticket, that would be the easiest decision I’d ever make on the voting ballot,” M.T. told The Post, adding that he is strongly considering “throwing away” his vote to write her in. “But unfortunately, she is not.”
Asked if anything would make him consider voting for the Democrats, M.T. said he’d need to see Harris replaced at the top of the ticket with a more moderate candidate like Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
